{"id":3511317,"date":"2025-03-26T12:27:57","date_gmt":"2025-03-26T12:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/?p=3511317"},"modified":"2025-03-26T12:27:57","modified_gmt":"2025-03-26T12:27:57","slug":"beneath-greenlands-ice-lies-a-climate-solution-and-a-new-geopolitical-battleground","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2025-03-26\/beneath-greenlands-ice-lies-a-climate-solution-and-a-new-geopolitical-battleground\/","title":{"rendered":"Beneath Greenland\u2019s ice lies a climate solution \u2014 and a new geopolitical battleground"},"content":{"rendered":"

“This story was originally published by Grist<\/a>. Sign up for Grist’s weekly newsletter here<\/a>.”<\/em><\/p>\n

Greenland\u2019s massive cap of ice, containing enough fresh water to raise sea levels by 23 feet, is in serious trouble<\/a>. Between 2002 and 2023, Greenland lost\u00a0270 billion tons<\/a>\u00a0of frozen water each year as winter snowfall failed to compensate for ever-fiercer summer temperatures. That\u2019s a significant contributor of sea level rise globally, which is now at a\u00a0quarter of an inch<\/a>\u00a0a year.<\/p>\n

But underneath all that melting ice is something the whole world wants: the rare earth elements<\/span> that make modern society \u2014 and the clean energy revolution \u2014 possible. That could soon turn Greenland, which has a population size similar to that of Casper, Wyoming, into a mining mecca.<\/p>\n

Greenland\u2019s dominant industry has long been fishing, but its government is now looking to diversify its economy. While the island has opened up a handful of mines, like for gold and rubies, its built and natural environment makes drilling a nightmare \u2014 freezing conditions on remote sites without railways or highways for access. The country\u2019s rich reserves of rare earths and geopolitical conflict, however, are making the island look increasingly enticing to mining companies, Arctic conditions be damned.<\/p>\n

When President Donald Trump talks about the United States acquiring Greenland, it\u2019s partly for its strategic trade and military location<\/a> in the Arctic, but also for its mineral resources. According to one Greenland official<\/a>, the island \u201cpossesses 39 of the 50 minerals<\/a> that the United States has classified as critical to national security and economic stability.\u201d While the island, an autonomous territory of Denmark, has made clear it is not for sale, its government is signaling it is open to business, particularly in the minerals sector. Earlier this month, Greenland\u2019s elections saw the ascendance<\/a> of the pro-business Demokraatit Party, which has promised to accelerate the development<\/a> of the country\u2019s minerals and other resources. At the same time, the party\u2019s leadership is pushing back hard against Trump\u2019s rhetoric<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Rare earth elements are fundamental to daily life: These words you are reading on a screen are made of the ones and zeroes of binary code. But they\u2019re also made of rare earth elements, such as the terbium in LED screens, praseodymium in batteries, and neodymium in a phone\u2019s vibration unit. Depending on where you live, the electricity powering this screen may have even come from the dysprosium in wind turbines.<\/p>\n

These minerals helped build the modern world \u2014 and will be in increasing demand going forward. \u201cThey sit at the heart of pretty much every electric vehicle, cruise missile, advanced magnet,\u201d said Adam Lajeunesse, a public policy expert at Canada\u2019s St. Francis Xavier University. \u201cAll of these different minerals are absolutely required to build almost everything that we do in our high-tech environment.\u201d<\/p>\n

Greenland\u2019s vanishing ice<\/h3>\n

Arctic sea route<\/strong><\/p>\n

Sea ice extent, 1979 vs 2023<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
\nSource: NSIDC \/ NOAA Tom Vaillant \/ Clayton Aldern \/ Grist<\/em><\/p>\n

To the increasing alarm of Western powers, China now has a stranglehold on the market for rare earth elements, responsible for 70 percent of production<\/a> globally. As the renewables revolution unfolds, and as more EVs hit the road, the world will demand ever more of these metals: Between 2020 and 2022, the total value of rare earths used in the energy transition each year quadrupled<\/a>. That is projected to go up another tenfold by 2035. According to the European Commission\u2019s Joint Research Centre, by 2030, Greenland could provide nearly 10,000 tons of rare earth oxides to the global economy.<\/p>\n

One way to meet that demand, and for the world to diversify control over the rare earths market and speed up clean energy adoption, is to mine in Greenland. (In other words, the way to avoid future ice melt may, ironically, mean capitalizing on the riches revealed by climate-driven ice loss.) On the land currently exposed along the island\u2019s edges, mining companies are starting to drill, and the U.S. doesn\u2019t want to be left out of the action.<\/p>\n

But anyone gung-ho on immediately turning Greenland into a rare earths bonanza is in for a rude awakening. More so than elsewhere on the planet, mining the island is an extremely complicated, and lengthy, proposition \u2014 logistically, geopolitically, and economically. And most importantly for the people of Greenland, mining of any kind comes with inevitable environmental consequences, like pollution and disruptions to wildlife.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

An aircraft carrying President Trump\u2019s son, businessman Donald Trump Jr., arrives in Nuuk, Greenland, on January 7. Emil Stach \/ Ritzau Scanpix \/ AFP \/ Denmark OUT via Getty Images<\/em><\/p>\n

The Trump administration\u2019s aggressive language has spooked Indigenous Greenlanders in particular, who make up 90 percent of the population and have endured a long history of brutal colonization<\/a>, from deadly waves of disease and displacement to forced sterilization. \u201cIt\u2019s been a shock for Greenland,\u201d said Aqqaluk Lynge, former president of the Inuit Circumpolar Council and co-founder of Greenland\u2019s Inuit Ataqatigiit political party. \u201cThey are looking at us as people that you just can throw out.\u201d<\/p>\n

Lacking the resources to directly invest in mining for rare earths, the Greenland government is approving licenses for exploration. \u201cWe have all the critical minerals. Everyone wants them,\u201d said J\u00f8rgen T. Hammeken-Holm, permanent secretary for mineral resources in the Greenland government. \u201cThe geology is so exciting, but there are a lot of \u2018buts.\u2019\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

The funny thing about rare earth elements is that they\u2019re not particularly rare. Planet Earth is loaded with them \u2014 only in an annoyingly distributed manner. Miners have to process a lot of rock to pluck out small amounts of praseodymium, neodymium, and the 15 other rare earth elements. That makes the minerals very difficult and dirty to mine and then refine: For every ton of rare earths dug up, 2,000 tons of toxic waste<\/a> are generated.<\/p>\n

China\u2019s government cornered the market on rare earths by both subsidizing the industry and streamlining regulations. \u201cIf you can purchase something from a Chinese company which does not have the same labor regulations, human rights considerations, environmental considerations as you would in Australia or California, you\u2019ll buy it more cheaply on the Chinese market,\u201d Lajeunesse said. Many critical minerals that are mined elsewhere in the world still go back to China, because the country has spent decades building up its refining capacity.<\/p>\n

The race is on<\/h3>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Menezes 2021 Tom Vaillant \/ Clayton Aldern \/ Grist \/ Ian Joughin \/ Imaggeo<\/em><\/p>\n

China has used the rare earths market as an economic and political weapon. In 2010, the so-called Rare Earths Trade Dispute broke out, when China refused to ship the minerals to Japan \u2014 a country famous for its manufacturing of technologies. (However, some researchers question<\/a> whether this was a deliberate embargo or a Chinese effort to reduce rare earth exports generally.) More subtly, China can manipulate the market on rare earths by, say, increasing production to drive down prices. This makes it less economically feasible for other mining outfits to get into the game, given the cost and difficulty of extracting the minerals, solidifying China\u2019s grip on rare earths.<\/p>\n

\u201cThey control every stage \u2014 the mining of it, and then the intermediate processing, and then the more sophisticated final product processing,\u201d said Heather Exner-Pirot, director of energy, natural resources, and environment at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, a think tank in Canada. \u201cSo they can intervene in the market at all these levels.\u201d<\/p>\n

This is a precarious monopoly for Western economies and governments to navigate. Military aircraft and drones use permanent magnets made of terbium and dysprosium. Medical imaging equipment also relies on rare earths, as do flatscreens and electric motors. It\u2019s not just the energy transition that needs a steady supply of these minerals, but modern life itself.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Meltwater flows from the Russell Glacier near Kangerlussuaq, Greenland.\u00a0Juan Maria Coy Vergara \/ Getty Images (used with permission)<\/cite><\/em><\/p>\n

As a result, all eyes are turning toward Greenland\u2019s rich deposits of rare earths. The island contains 18 percent of the global reserves for neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium, according to the European Commission\u2019s Joint Research Centre. Even a decade ago, scientists reported<\/a> that the island could meet a quarter of the global demand for rare earths.<\/p>\n

\n

The question is whether mining companies can overcome the headaches inherent in extracting rare earths from Greenland\u2019s ice-free yet still frigid edges. An outfit would have to ship in all their equipment and build their own city at a remote mining site at considerable cost. On top of that, it would be difficult to actually hire enough workers from the island\u2019s population of laborers, so a mining company may need to hire internationally and bring them in. Greenland has a population of 57,000, just 65 of whom were involved in mining as of 2020, so the requisite experience just isn\u2019t there. \u201cLabor laws are much more strict than they would be in a Chinese rare earth mine in Mongolia,\u201d Lajeunesse said. \u201cAll of those things factor together to make Arctic development very expensive.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, the geopolitical pressure from China\u2019s domination of the rare earths market has opened Greenland to exploration. No one needs to wait for further deterioration of the island\u2019s ice sheet to get to work, as there\u2019s enough ice-free land along these edges to dig through. Around 40 mining companies have exploration, prospecting, and exploitation licenses in Greenland, with the majority of the firms based in Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. \u201cWe can give you these minerals,\u201d Hammeken-Holm said, \u201cbut you need to come to Greenland and do the exploration.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: USGS Tom Vaillant \/ Clayton Aldern \/ Grist \/ Ivan Borinschi \/ Unsplash<\/em><\/p>\n

One of those companies is Critical Metals Corp., which in September drilled 14 holes on the coast of southern Greenland, about 16 miles from the town of Qaqortoq. The New York-based company says it\u2019s found one of the world\u2019s highest concentrations of gallium<\/a>, which isn\u2019t technically a rare earth element but is still essential in the manufacturing of computer chips.<\/p>\n

Dramatic change on and around the island, though, could make mining for rare earths even more complicated. While the loss of floating ice in the waters around the island makes it easier and safer for ships to navigate, more chunks of glaciers will drop into the ocean as the world warms, which could become especially hazardous for ships, \u00e0 la the Titanic.<\/p>\n

Even given the rapid loss of Greenland\u2019s 650,000-square-mile ice sheet, though, it would take a long while to lose it all \u2014 it\u2019s 1.4 miles thick on average. The Earth itself is also frozen in parts of the island, known as permafrost, which will thaw in the nearer term<\/a> as temperatures rise. \u201cThat’s going to give you certainly instability in terms of building access roads and such,\u201d said Paul Bierman, a geologist at the University of Vermont and author of the book When the Ice Is Gone: What a Greenland Ice Core Reveals About Earth’s Tumultuous History and Perilous Future<\/em>. \u201cThe climate is changing, so I think it’s going to be a very dynamic environment in which to extract minerals.\u201d<\/p>\n

Mining pollution, too, is a major concern: The accessible land along the island\u2019s ice-free edges is also where humans live. As mining equipment and ships burn fossil fuels, they produce black carbon. When this settles on ice, it darkens the surface, which then absorbs more sunlight \u2014 think of how much hotter you get wearing a black shirt than a white shirt on a summer day. This could further accelerate the melting<\/a> of Greenland\u2019s precarious ice sheet. A 2022 study<\/a> also found that three legacy mines in Greenland heavily polluted the local environment with metals, like lead and zinc, due to the lack of environmental studies and regulation prior to the 1970s. But it also found no significant pollution at mines established in the last 20 years.<\/p>\n

A more immediate problem with mining is the potentially toxic dust generated by so much machinery, said Niels Henrik Hooge, a campaigner at NOAH, the Danish chapter of the environmental organization Friends of the Earth. \u201cThat’s a concern, because all the mining projects are located in areas where people live, or potentially could live,\u201d Hooge said. \u201cEverything is a bit different in the Arctic, because the environment does not recover very quickly when polluted.\u201d<\/p>\n

The coast is clear<\/h3>\n

Greenland’s active rare earth licenses<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Source: Greenland Mineral Resources Authority \/ QGreenland \/ Tom Vaillant \/ Clayton Aldern \/ Grist<\/em><\/p>\n

Lynge says that a win-win for Greenlanders would be to support mining but insist that it\u2019s run on hydropower instead of fossil fuels. The island has huge potential for hydropower<\/a>, and indeed has been approving more projects<\/a> and expanding another existing facility<\/a>. Still, no amount of hydropower can negate the impact of mining on the landscape. \u201cThere’s no sustainable mining in the world,\u201d Lynge said. \u201cThe question is if we can do it a little bit better.\u201d<\/p>\n

Critical Metals Corp., for its part, says that it expects to produce minimal harmful products at its site. Like other mining projects in Greenland, it will need to pass an environmental review. \u201cWe expect to provide more updates about our plans to reduce our environmental footprint as we get closer to mining operations,\u201d said Tony Sage, the company\u2019s CEO and executive chairman, in a statement provided to Grist. \u201cWith that, we believe it is important to keep in mind that rare earth elements are critical materials for cleaner applications, which will help us build a greener planet in the future.\u201d<\/p>\n

Still, wherever there\u2019s mining activity, there\u2019s potential for spills. There\u2019s also potential for a lot of noise: Ships in particular fill the ocean around Greenland with a din that can stress and disorient fishes and marine mammals, like narwhals, seals, and whales. For vocalizing species, it can disrupt their communication.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s a lot at stake here economically and politically, too: Fishing is Greenland\u2019s predominant industry, accounting for 95 percent<\/a> of the island\u2019s exports. Rare earth mining, then, is the island\u2019s play to diversify its economy, which could help it wean off the subsidies it gets from the Danish government. That, in turn, could help it win independence<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Thus far, the mining business has been a bit rocky in Greenland. In 2021, the government banned uranium mining<\/a>, halting the development of a project by the Australian outfit Greenland Minerals, which would have also produced rare earths at the site. (Greenland Minerals did not respond to multiple requests to comment for this story.) The China-linked company is now suing<\/a> the Greenland government for $11 billion \u2014 potentially spooking other would-be prospectors and the investors already worried about the profitability of mining for rare earths in the far north.<\/p>\n

\u201cWhen we talk to them, they understand the situation, and they’re not afraid,\u201d said Hammeken-Holm. He added that Greenland maintains a dialogue with mining outfits about the challenges, and prospects, of exploration. \u201cIt is difficult to get private finance for these projects, but we are not alone,\u201d he said. \u201cThat’s a worldwide situation.\u201d<\/p>\n

\n

The growing demand and geopolitical fervor around rare earths may well make Greenland irresistible for mining companies, regardless of the logistical challenges. Hammeken-Holm says that a major discovery, like an especially rich deposit of a given rare earth element, might be the extra boost the country needs to transform itself into an indispensable provider of the critical minerals.<\/p>\n

Both Exner-Pirot, of the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, and Lajeunesse, the public policy expert, say that Western powers might get to the point where they intervene aggressively in the market. Like China\u2019s state-sponsored rare earths industry, the U.S., Canada, Australia, or the European Union \u2014 which entered into a strategic partnership<\/a> with Greenland in 2023 to develop critical raw materials \u2014 might band together to guarantee a steady flow of the minerals that make modern militaries, consumerism, and the energy transition possible. Subsidies, for instance, would help make the industry more profitable \u2014 and palatable for investors. \u201cYou’d have to accept that you’re purchasing and developing minerals for more than the market price,\u201d Lajeunesse said. \u201cBut over the long term, it’s about developing a security of supply.\u201d<\/p>\n

Already a land of rapid climatological change, Greenland could soon grow richer \u2014 and more powerful on the world stage. Ton by ton, its disappearing ice will reveal more of the mineral solutions to the world\u2019s woes.<\/p>\n

Tom Vaillant contributed research and reporting.<\/em><\/p>\n

Grist is a nonprofit, independent media organization dedicated to telling stories of climate solutions and a just future. Learn more at Grist.org<\/a><\/p>\n