China\u2019s historical emissions within its borders have now caused more global warming than the 27 member states of the EU combined, according to new Carbon Brief analysis.<\/p>\n
The findings come amid fraught negotiations at COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, where negotiators have been invoking the \u201cprinciple of\u00a0historical responsibility<\/a>\u201d in their discussions over who should pay money towards a\u00a0new goal<\/a>\u00a0for climate finance\u00a0\u2013\u00a0and how much.<\/p>\n Carbon Brief\u2019s analysis shows that 94% of the global\u00a0carbon budget<\/a>\u00a0for 1.5C has now been used up, as cumulative emissions since 1850 have reached 2,607bn tonnes of carbon dioxide (GtCO2).<\/p>\n While developed countries have used the majority of this budget, the analysis shows that China\u2019s historical emissions reached 312GtCO2 in 2023, overtaking the EU\u2019s 303GtCO2.<\/p>\n China is still far behind the 532GtCO2 emitted by the US, however, according to the analysis.<\/p>\n Indeed, China is unlikely to ever overtake the US contribution to global warming, based on current policies, committed plans and technology trends in both countries. This is\u00a0even before accounting for the potential\u00a0emissions-boosting<\/a>\u00a0policies of the\u00a0incoming<\/a>\u00a0Trump presidency.<\/p>\n In addition, China\u2019s 1.4 billion people are each responsible for 227tCO2, a third of the 682tCO2 linked to the EU\u2019s 450 million citizens \u2013\u00a0and far below the 1,570tCO2 per capita in the US.<\/p>\n The new analysis follows Carbon Brief\u2019s 2021 analysis of\u00a0historical responsibility<\/a>, based on emissions taking place within each country\u2019s present-day borders or considering emissions embedded in imports. Further analysis in 2023 assigned responsibility to\u00a0colonial rulers<\/a>.<\/p>\n (A table at the end of this article shows which countries have the largest historical emissions according to the full range of metrics, including emissions per person.)<\/p>\n