{"id":3504353,"date":"2024-10-28T14:17:14","date_gmt":"2024-10-28T14:17:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/?p=3504353"},"modified":"2024-10-28T14:17:14","modified_gmt":"2024-10-28T14:17:14","slug":"solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2024-10-28\/solar-surge-will-send-coal-power-tumbling-by-2030-iea-data-reveals\/","title":{"rendered":"Solar surge will send coal power tumbling by 2030, IEA data reveals"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Global electricity generation from solar will quadruple by 2030 and help to push coal power into reverse, according to Carbon Brief analysis of data from the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">International Energy Agency<\/a>\u00a0(IEA).<\/p>\n<p>The IEA\u2019s latest\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/world-energy-outlook-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">World Energy Outlook 2024<\/a>\u00a0shows solar overtaking nuclear, wind, hydro, gas and, finally, coal, to become the world\u2019s single-largest source of electricity by 2033.<\/p>\n<p>This solar surge will help kickstart the \u201cage of electricity\u201d, the agency says, where rapidly expanding clean electricity and \u201cinherently\u201d greater efficiency will push fossil fuels into decline.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the world\u2019s energy-related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions will reach a peak \u201cimminently\u201d, the IEA says, with its data indicating a turning point in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>Other highlights from Carbon Brief\u2019s in-depth examination of the IEA\u2019s latest outlook include:<\/p>\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Renewables will grow 2.7-fold by 2030, short of the \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/qa-why-deals-at-cop28-to-triple-renewables-and-double-efficiency-are-crucial-for-1-5c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tripling<\/a>\u201d goal set at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/cop28-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-dubai\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">COP28<\/a>.<\/li>\n<li>Still, clean energy is growing at an \u201cunprecedented rate\u201d, and will overtake coal, gas and then oil, to become the world\u2019s largest source of energy \u201cin the mid-2030s\u201d.<\/li>\n<li>Low-carbon energy, including renewables and nuclear, will grow 44% by 2030, adding 48 exajoules (EJ) to global energy supplies.<\/li>\n<li>Global energy demand will only rise by 34EJ (5%) over the same period.<\/li>\n<li>This means clean energy will push each of the fossil fuels past their peak by 2030.<\/li>\n<li>Electric vehicles (EVs) are now expected to displace 6m barrels of oil per day (mb\/d) by 2030, up from a figure of 4mb\/d by 2030 in last year\u2019s outlook.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Despite these changes, the world is on track to cut CO2 emissions to just 4% below 2023 levels by 2030, the agency warns, resulting in warming of 2.4C above pre-industrial temperatures.<\/p>\n<p>It says there is an \u201cincreasingly narrow, but still achievable\u201d path to staying below 1.5C, which would need more clean electricity, faster electrification and a 33% cut in emissions by 2030.<\/p>\n<p>This year, in light of heightened geopolitical risks and uncertainties, the IEA explores \u201csensitivities\u201d around its core outlook. These include slower (or faster) uptake of electric vehicles (EVs), as well as faster growth in data-centre loads and more heatwave-driven demand for air conditioning.<\/p>\n<p>The agency maintains that, even when these sensitivities are combined, global demand for coal, oil and gas \u2013 as well as CO2 emissions\u00a0\u2013 would peak no more than a few years later than expected.<\/p>\n<p>(See Carbon Brief\u2019s coverage of previous IEA world energy outlooks from\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2023<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/in-depth-russias-war-means-fossil-fuels-will-peak-within-five-years-iea-says\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2022<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/fossil-fuel-use-will-peak-by-2025-if-countries-meet-climate-pledges-says-iea\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2021<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricity-in-history-confirms-iea\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2020<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/profound-shifts-underway-in-energy-system-says-iea-world-energy-outlook\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2019<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/global-coal-use-may-have-peaked-iea-world-enery-outlook\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2018<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/in-depth-iea-predicts-rise-of-cheap-renewables-and-chinas-move-away-from-coal\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2017<\/a>,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-international-energy-agency-cuts-coal-growth-outlook-in-half-china\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2016<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-iea-world-energy-outlook-sees-radical-shifts-despite-conservatism\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">2015<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">World energy outlook<\/h3>\n<p>The IEA\u2019s annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) is published every autumn. It is widely regarded as one of the most influential annual contributions to the understanding of climate and energy trends.<\/p>\n<p>The outlook explores a range of scenarios, representing different possible futures for the global energy system. These are developed using the IEA\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/global-energy-and-climate-model\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Global Energy and Climate Model<\/a>\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>The 1.5C-compatible \u201cnet-zero emissions by 2050\u201d (NZE) scenario was introduced in 2021 and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/net-zero-roadmap-a-global-pathway-to-keep-the-15-0c-goal-in-reach\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">updated<\/a>\u00a0in September 2023. The NZE is revised again in the WEO 2024 to reflect the fact that global CO2 emissions reached another record high last year, rather than falling.<\/p>\n<p>The report says that the path to 1.5C is \u201cincreasingly narrow, but still achievable\u201d. However, it adds:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cEvery year in which global emissions rise and actions fall short of what is needed for the future makes this pathway steeper and harder to climb.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Alongside the NZE is the \u201cannounced pledges scenario\u201d (APS), in which governments are given the benefit of the doubt and assumed to meet all of their climate goals on time and in full.<\/p>\n<p>Finally, the \u201cstated policies scenario\u201d (STEPS) represents \u201cthe prevailing direction of travel for the energy system, based on a detailed assessment of current policy settings\u201d. Here, the IEA looks not at what governments are saying, but what they are actually doing.<\/p>\n<p>Annex B of the report breaks down the policies and targets included in each scenario. In effect, the IEA is judging the seriousness of each target and whether it will be followed through.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the provisions of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/eu-election-2024-what-the-manifestos-say-on-energy-and-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">European Green Deal<\/a>\u00a0are included in the STEPS. But the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/qa-how-fit-for-55-reforms-will-help-eu-meet-its-climate-goals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">EU target<\/a>\u00a0to cut emissions to 55% below 1990 levels by 2030 is only met under the APS.<\/p>\n<p>Since last year\u2019s report, some 38 countries responsible for a third of global energy-related CO2 emissions have introduced new clean-energy measures, the IEA says.<\/p>\n<p>It mentions South Korea\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.kimchang.com\/en\/insights\/detail.kc?sch_section=4&amp;idx=29746\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">11th electricity plan<\/a>, which \u201cincludes a significant expansion of nuclear, wind and solar\u201d, and the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/interactive-labour-governments-in-tray-for-climate-change-energy-and-nature\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">new UK government<\/a>\u00a0\u201clift[ing] the de-facto ban on new onshore wind\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>(It says there have also been \u201csome rollbacks\u201d of climate policy over the past year, such as Javier Milei\u2019s\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.energyintel.com\/00000190-794c-d45a-a195-7dfed6270000\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">reforms<\/a>\u00a0in Argentina, but the global impact of these is \u201crelatively small\u201d.)<\/p>\n<p>The report emphasises that \u201cnone of the scenarios should be viewed as a forecast\u201d. It adds:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cOur scenario analysis is designed to inform decisionmakers as they consider options, not to predict how they will act.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Earlier this year,\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/d1dth6e84htgma.cloudfront.net\/04_03_24_Letter_to_Dr_Fatih_Birol_1a78d54414.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">some<\/a>\u00a0US\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.energy.senate.gov\/services\/files\/8E2BA8FC-08F5-432F-A579-0BE6EEAE81C4\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">politicians<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsj.com\/articles\/activists-neuter-a-global-watchdog-energy-policy-international-energy-agency-1ac4f81b\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">analysts<\/a>\u00a0criticised the IEA\u2019s work, in particular, its\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">suggestion<\/a>\u00a0in WEO 2023 that demand for oil, coal and gas would each peak before 2030. They also argued that the IEA was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-02-20\/iea-defends-its-energy-models-against-green-censors-criticism?accessToken=eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJzb3VyY2UiOiJTdWJzY3JpYmVyR2lmdGVkQXJ0aWNsZSIsImlhdCI6MTcwODQzOTc5MiwiZXhwIjoxNzA5MDQ0NTkyLCJhcnRpY2xlSWQiOiJTOTVTRVdEV1JHRzAwMCIsImJjb25uZWN0SWQiOiIwQzg4NkY0NTI0NzY0RUE0OEY2QTk4RTk1NDc5RTI2NSJ9.CeuEtla02rID_hrGTWvOmqWLXY6dMJbG5MHAgqTiphQ&amp;sref=Oz9Q3OZU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">straying<\/a>\u00a0from its core focus on energy security.<\/p>\n<p>At the time, the agency\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.documentcloud.org\/documents\/24539288-iea-responses-to-questions-from-senator-barrasso-and-representative-rodgers_5-april-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">defended<\/a>\u00a0its approach in a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.documentcloud.org\/documents\/24539287-69-barrasso_rodgers\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">response<\/a>\u00a0to Senate Republicans.<\/p>\n<p>This year\u2019s edition goes on to reiterate the IEA\u2019s view that fossil fuels will peak this decade\u00a0\u2013 and pushes back on the idea that climate change and clean energy are outside its mission.<\/p>\n<p>It says that \u201cmore efficient, cleaner energy systems can reduce energy security risks\u201d and that a \u201ccomprehensive approach to energy security\u2026needs to extend beyond traditional fuels\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>In his foreword to the report, IEA executive director Fatih Birol adds:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cThe concept of energy security goes well beyond safeguarding against traditional risks to oil and natural gas supplies, as important as that remains for the global economy.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>He says that, in addition to those issues, energy security includes access to affordable energy supplies, secure supply chains for clean-energy technologies and dealing with the rising threat of extreme weather disruption to energy systems. Birol\u2019s foreword continues:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cThe analysis in this year\u2019s outlook reinforces my long-held conviction that energy security and climate action go hand-in-hand\u2026This is because deploying cost-competitive clean energy technologies represents a lasting solution not only for bringing down emissions, but also for reducing reliance on fuels that have been prone to volatility and disruption.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Discussing the controversy over fossil-fuel peaking in a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/events\/world-energy-outlook-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">press briefing<\/a>\u00a0to launch this year\u2019s report, Birol said that the latest data \u2013\u00a0and the outlooks of several major international oil and gas companies\u00a0\u2013 had \u201cconfirmed and reconfirmed\u201d the IEA\u2019s position on oil demand.<\/p>\n<p>Birol said\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/news\/articles\/2024-10-16\/world-set-for-cheaper-energy-on-shift-from-oil-and-gas-iea-says?sref=Oz9Q3OZU\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">press reports<\/a>\u00a0had described the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/commodities\/eia-slashes-us-global-oil-demand-forecasts-2025-2024-10-08\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">latest data<\/a>\u00a0as \u201cvindication\u201d for the IEA\u2019s forecast of minimal growth in oil demand this year. But he added: \u201cIt\u2019s not a vindication of the IEA, it\u2019s a vindication of numbers and objective analysis.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, this year\u2019s outlook puts extra emphasis on the uncertainty surrounding its scenarios. It devotes an entire chapter to exploring \u201csensitivities\u201d, such as slower growth in EV sales or a more rapid escalation of heatwaves driving demand for air conditioning.<\/p>\n<p>Even when these sensitivities are combined in ways that would slow climate action, however, the IEA says that oil demand still peaks and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/fbirol\/status\/1846400963680076083\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">begins to decline<\/a>\u00a0by 2035. Similarly, global CO2 emissions would be less than 2% higher in 2030 and 1% in 2035 than in the core outlook.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u2018Age of electricity\u2019<\/h3>\n<p>A central theme of this year\u2019s outlook is the idea that the global energy system is entering a new era, defined by rapid growth in electricity demand and a surge in clean electricity supplies.<\/p>\n<p>In a press release accompanying the report, Birol calls this new era the \u201cage of electricity\u201d, in contrast to the earlier \u201cage of coal\u201d and \u201cage of oil\u201d. (The \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/reports\/golden-rules-for-a-golden-age-of-gas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">golden age of gas<\/a>\u201d, predicted by the IEA in 2012, was prematurely\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/in-depth-russias-war-means-fossil-fuels-will-peak-within-five-years-iea-says\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">brought to an end<\/a>\u00a0by the global energy crisis, driven by high gas prices.)<\/p>\n<p>Birol says \u201cthe future of the energy system is electric\u201d and that it is \u201cmoving at speed\u201d towards \u201cincreasingly be[ing] based on clean sources of electricity\u201d. In the report foreword he adds:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cThe latest outlook also confirms that the contours of a new, more electrified energy system are becoming increasingly evident, with major implications on how we meet rising demand for energy services. Clean electricity is the future, and one of the striking findings of this outlook is how fast demand for electricity is set to rise, with the equivalent of the electricity use of the world\u2019s ten largest cities being added to global demand each year.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The IEA says that electricity demand is set to rise six times faster than global energy demand overall, in the years out to 2035, having only been twice as fast since 2010.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54112 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_fbirol_status_1846400954536460734.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1196px) 100vw, 1196px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_fbirol_status_1846400954536460734.png 1196w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_fbirol_status_1846400954536460734-191x300.png 191w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_fbirol_status_1846400954536460734-654x1024.png 654w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_fbirol_status_1846400954536460734-768x1203.png 768w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_fbirol_status_1846400954536460734-980x1536.png 980w\" alt=\"fbirol on X: After the Age of Coal &amp; Age of Oil, the world is moving rapidly into the Age of Electricity\" width=\"1196\" height=\"1874\" \/><\/p>\n<p>Moreover, despite a rapid acceleration in recent years, clean electricity has not yet grown fast enough to meet rising demand, leaving space for fossil-fueled power to continue expanding.<\/p>\n<p>Global solar capacity is now 40-times larger than it was in 2010 and wind six times larger, the outlook notes, and a record 560 gigawatts (GW) of renewables were added in 2023.<\/p>\n<p>Yet growth in clean electricity supplies has still fallen short of rising demand, meaning coal power has climbed 23% since 2010 and gas by 36%, raising emissions in the sector by 20%.<\/p>\n<p>This is now set to change. The report says:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cIt is now cheaper to build onshore wind and solar power projects than new fossil-fuel plants almost everywhere around the world, and the economic arguments remain strong even when considering the accompanying investment required to cope with their variability of generation.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Renewables are only on track to expand 2.7-fold from 2022 to 2030 \u2013 short of the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/qa-why-deals-at-cop28-to-triple-renewables-and-double-efficiency-are-crucial-for-1-5c\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tripling target<\/a>\u00a0set at\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/cop28-key-outcomes-agreed-at-the-un-climate-talks-in-dubai\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">COP28<\/a>\u00a0\u2013 but clean electricity will still outstrip rising demand, out to 2030 and beyond.<\/p>\n<p>The IEA data shows that the amount of electricity generated from solar power alone is set to quadruple from 2023 levels by 2030 \u2013 and to climb more than nine-fold by 2050.<\/p>\n<p>This means that solar will overtake nuclear, hydro and wind in 2026, gas in 2031\u00a0\u2013 and then coal by 2033 \u2013 to become the world\u2019s largest source of electricity, as shown in the figure below.<\/p>\n<p>Along with a doubling of wind generation and more modest gains for nuclear and hydro by 2030, clean electricity will push coal power into reverse, declining 13% by 2030 and 34% by 2035.<\/p>\n<p>(The outlook sees modest growth of 6% by 2030 for gas power, but most of this would be erased by 2035 as clean electricity supplies continue to expand.)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54106 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-gen.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2370px) 100vw, 2370px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-gen.png 2370w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-gen-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-gen-1024x576.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-gen-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-gen-1536x863.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-gen-2048x1151.png 2048w\" alt=\"Global electricity generation by source, TWh, 2010-2050. \" width=\"2370\" height=\"1332\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Global electricity generation by source, TWh, 2010-2050. Source: World Energy Outlook 2024.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The IEA says that China was\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/china-briefing-17-october-2024-chinas-electrification-to-disrupt-oil-high-level-environment-meeting-aligning-chinas-population-and-climate-policies\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">responsible<\/a>\u00a0for 60% of worldwide renewable installations last year\u00a0\u2013 and will add 60% of new capacity out to 2030. This means that by the early 2030s, solar generation in China alone is set to exceed the US\u2019 current total electricity demand.<\/p>\n<p>Notably, this year\u2019s report includes another significant boost to the outlook for solar under current policy settings.<\/p>\n<p>The IEA now sees global solar capacity exceeding 16,000GW by 2050, some 30% higher than expected last year and nearly 11-times higher than it thought in 2015, as shown in the figure below.<\/p>\n<p>By 2023, the world had already installed 1,610GW of solar capacity. This comfortably exceeded the 1,405GW of capacity that the IEA had expected in 2050, under prevailing policy settings in its 2015 world energy outlook, released before the Paris Agreement later that year.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54128 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-capacity-1.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2150px) 100vw, 2150px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-capacity-1.png 2150w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-capacity-1-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-capacity-1-1024x573.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-capacity-1-768x430.png 768w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-capacity-1-1536x860.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-solar-capacity-1-2048x1147.png 2048w\" alt=\"The IEA has boosted the outlook for solar capacity in 2050 by another 30%\" width=\"2150\" height=\"1204\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Past and expected future global solar capacity, gigawatts, 2010-2050, in IEA world energy outlooks from 2015 (\u201cnew policies scenario\u201d), 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024 (\u201cstated policies scenario\u201d).<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Similarly, this year\u2019s outlook says battery storage capacity will reach 1,630GW by 2030. Only two years ago, it had said battery capacity would reach just 1,296GW by 2050.<\/p>\n<p>In addition to raising the outlook for solar and storage, however, this year\u2019s report also includes significantly higher global electricity demand, which has been revised upwards by 5% in 2030.<\/p>\n<p>This 1,700 terawatt-hour (TWh) revision to global demand in 2030 \u2013 nearly equivalent to current electricity use in India\u00a0\u2013 is much larger than the 1,000TWh adjustment for solar.<\/p>\n<p>As a result, the IEA has also raised its outlook for coal power in 2030 by nearly 900TWh.<\/p>\n<p>The IEA says that higher electricity demand is \u201cmainly\u201d down to \u201cincreased light industry activity, notably in China, much of it associated with a\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-clean-energy-was-top-driver-of-chinas-economic-growth-in-2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">rapid rise<\/a>\u00a0in clean-technology manufacturing\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Other factors include faster-than-expected adoption of EVs, more rapid electrification in industry in developing countries and the rise of data centres.<\/p>\n<p>(The IEA, nevertheless, pours cold water on over-hyped reporting of AI-driven growth in data-centre electricity demand, which it sees accounting for barely 3% of growth to 2030, overall.)<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JesseJenkins\/status\/1846566168704004107\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54113 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_JesseJenkins_status_1846566168704004107-2.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1196px) 100vw, 1196px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_JesseJenkins_status_1846566168704004107-2.png 1196w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_JesseJenkins_status_1846566168704004107-2-257x300.png 257w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_JesseJenkins_status_1846566168704004107-2-879x1024.png 879w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_JesseJenkins_status_1846566168704004107-2-768x895.png 768w\" alt=\"Jesse Jenkins on X: The IEA's latest outlook tries to put the data center electricity demand boom in context\" width=\"1196\" height=\"1394\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Alongside growth in wind and solar, the report stresses the need for \u201ca wide set of dispatchable low-emissions sources, including hydropower, bioenergy and nuclear power\u201d.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>It also emphasises the need for rising investment in electricity grids and storage. Spending in these areas is currently only two-thirds of investment in renewables, whereas parity will be needed to facilitate clean electricity expansion and ensure resilience to extreme weather and cyberattacks.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Fossil fuels peak by 2030<\/h3>\n<p>The \u201cage of electricity\u201d will have important implications for the current fossil-fuelled energy system, the report says. These include a reduction in the rate of global energy demand growth, even as demand for \u201cenergy services\u201d \u2013\u00a0such as heat and mobility \u2013 rises rapidly in the developing world.<\/p>\n<p>Explaining this apparent paradox, the IEA says that much of the energy released by burning fossil fuels is lost as waste heat. In contrast, a \u201cmore electrified, renewables-rich system is inherently more efficient\u201d. This means less energy will be required to deliver the same energy services.<\/p>\n<p>For example, electric technologies such as\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/factcheck-21-misleading-myths-about-electric-vehicles\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">EVs<\/a>\u00a0and\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/factcheck-18-misleading-myths-about-heat-pumps\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">heat pumps<\/a>\u00a0deliver mobility and heat much more efficiently than internal combustion engines or fossil fuel boilers, the report says.<\/p>\n<p>As the \u201cage of electricity\u201d gains pace, sources of energy demand across all sectors of the economy will be increasingly electrified, including heating, cooling, mobility and industrial processes.<\/p>\n<p>This means the share of\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/guest-post-energy-efficiency-contributed-25-percent-of-uk-economic-growth-since-1971\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">final energy consumption<\/a>\u00a0met by electricity will rise from 17% in 2010 and 20% in 2023 to 24% by 2030 and 32% by 2050, the outlook says \u2013\u00a0a more than 50% rise on current levels of electrification.<\/p>\n<p>(Earlier this year, the\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/rmi.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Rocky Mountain Institute<\/a>\u00a0said China had \u201cleapfrogged\u201d other major countries in terms of rapid electrification, becoming what it termed the \u201cfirst major\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.economist.com\/briefing\/2020\/09\/17\/americas-domination-of-oil-and-gas-will-not-cow-china\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">electrostate<\/a>\u201d. Electricity already accounts for 26% of its energy consumption and will reach nearly 45% by 2050.)<\/p>\n<figure class=\"aligncenter size-full\"><a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/wblau\/status\/1803441555933385048\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54115 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_wblau_status_1803441555933385048.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1196px) 100vw, 1196px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_wblau_status_1803441555933385048.png 1196w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_wblau_status_1803441555933385048-300x261.png 300w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_wblau_status_1803441555933385048-1024x890.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/x.com_wblau_status_1803441555933385048-768x668.png 768w\" alt=\"Wolfgang Blau on X: Note to self: first time I see the term 'electrostate' vs. petrostate.\" width=\"1196\" height=\"1040\" \/><\/a>Notably, the IEA has also been edging up its outlook for electrification, reflecting repeated boosts to its view on the deployment of electric technologies such as EVs and heat pumps. In 2015, it only expected electricity to meet 26% of final demand in 2050.The rise of electrification, fed by expanding clean electricity sources, is now on the cusp of sending fossil fuels into decline, the outlook shows. As noted above, this year\u2019s report reiterates the agency\u2019s view that coal, oil and gas will each reach a peak this decade. It says:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cIn the STEPS, coal demand begins to decline around 2025, while oil and natural gas demand both peak towards the end of the decade.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Indeed, the outlook data shows global energy supply growing 34EJ (5%) by 2030, with this growth easily outpaced by clean-energy expansion of 48EJ (44%). As a result, fossil fuels in aggregate will be pushed into decline, as shown in the figure below.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54108 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-fossil-fuels.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2368px) 100vw, 2368px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-fossil-fuels.png 2368w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-fossil-fuels-300x170.png 300w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-fossil-fuels-1024x579.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-fossil-fuels-768x435.png 768w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-fossil-fuels-1536x869.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-fossil-fuels-2048x1159.png 2048w\" alt=\"Global use of fossil fuels, exajoules, 1965-2050.\" width=\"2368\" height=\"1340\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Global use of fossil fuels, exajoules, 1965-2050. Chart shows historical use (black), the pre-Paris policy baseline (dashed line, 2015 \u201ccurrent policies scenario\u201d), policy in 2021-2024 (shades of grey, \u201cstated policies scenarios\u201d), as well as pledges in 2021-2024 (blue, \u201cannounced pledges scenarios\u201d) and the IEA\u2019s suggested paths to staying below 1.5C in 2021-2024 (red, \u201cnet-zero emissions by 2050 scenarios\u201d). Source: Carbon Brief analysis of IEA World Energy Outlooks.<\/em><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left;\">The chart above shows how shifts in the global policy and technology landscape since the 2015 Paris Agreement have transformed the outlook for fossil-fuel growth.<\/p>\n<p>Instead of the continuation of historical growth rates expected before Paris, the IEA has in recent years shifted its outlook, to a peak and increasingly steep decline in fossil-fuel demand.<\/p>\n<p>Indeed, this year\u2019s report points to fossil-fuel demand under current policy settings declining at a rate that is nearly in line with the climate pledges countries had made in 2021.<\/p>\n<p>For example, the report says that China\u2019s rapid uptake of EVs is spurring a \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/fbirol\/status\/1846400966297281013\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">major slowdown<\/a>\u201d in oil demand growth globally, which is \u201cwrong-footing oil producers\u201d. It explains:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cChina has been the engine of oil-market growth in recent decades, but that engine is now switching over to electricity.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Indeed, the rise of electric mobility around the world is set to displace 6mb\/d of oil demand by 2030, the outlook says, up from the 4mb\/d it expected last year.<\/p>\n<p>It notes that despite negative reporting, global EV sales were up 25% in the first half of 2024, with China accounting for 80% of the increase, but the rest of the world\u2019s market also up 10%.<\/p>\n<p>Nevertheless, the chart above illustrates the large gap between the current trajectory of the global energy system and what would be needed to meet existing national climate pledges, let alone the Paris Agreement target of limiting warming to \u201cwell-below\u201d 2C or 1.5C.<\/p>\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Insufficient progress on emissions<\/h3>\n<p>This year\u2019s outlook puts the gap between climate ambition and the world\u2019s current trajectory into stark relief, saying that prevailing policy settings would likely see warming reach 2.4C this century.<\/p>\n<p>Reflecting the marginally higher outlook for coal use in the short term, but more rapid fossil fuel declines in the medium and longer terms, this 2.4C assessment is the same as last year\u2019s report.<\/p>\n<p>This combination of changes is illustrated in the figure below, showing how the outlook for global energy-related CO2 emissions (grey line) has changed since 2015 (dashes). The IEA now says CO2 emissions will peak \u201cimminently\u201d, with its data pointing towards a peak in 2025.<\/p>\n<p>(Last year, the outlook said emissions would peak by 2025\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-global-co2-emissions-could-peak-as-soon-as-2023-iea-data-reveals\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">at the latest<\/a>.)<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-54109 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-co2-emissions.png\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 2374px) 100vw, 2374px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-co2-emissions.png 2374w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-co2-emissions-300x168.png 300w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-co2-emissions-1024x575.png 1024w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-co2-emissions-768x431.png 768w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-co2-emissions-1536x862.png 1536w, https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/10\/WEO24-co2-emissions-2048x1149.png 2048w\" alt=\"Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry, billion tonnes, 1965-2050.\" width=\"2374\" height=\"1332\" \/><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><em>Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry, billion tonnes, 1965-2050. Chart shows historical emissions (black), pre-Paris policy baseline (dashed grey, 2015 \u201ccurrent policies scenario\u201d), policy in 2021-2024 (grey, \u201cstated policies scenarios\u201d), as well as pledges in 2024 (blue, \u201cannounced pledges scenario\u201d) and the IEA\u2019s suggested path to staying below 1.5C (red, \u201cnet-zero emissions by 2050 scenario\u201d). Source: Carbon Brief analysis of IEA World Energy Outlooks.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The chart above illustrates how new policies and technological progress since the Paris Agreement are bending the curve of global CO2 emissions away from the 3.5C of warming\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/analysis-iea-world-energy-outlook-sees-radical-shifts-despite-conservatism\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">expected<\/a>\u00a0in 2015.<\/p>\n<p>Still, it also shows the massive gap that would need to be bridged in order to meet national climate pledges for 2030 and for reaching net-zero emissions by mid-century (blue line). And it shows the huge scale of the gap to the \u201cincreasingly narrow, but still achievable\u201d path to 1.5C.<\/p>\n<p>While current policy settings would cut global CO2 emissions to 4% below 2023 levels by 2030, according to the IEA, a far larger 33% reduction would be needed for 1.5C.<\/p>\n<p>A\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.iea.org\/news\/countries-can-transform-the-global-energy-sector-by-fully-implementing-the-2030-goals-they-agreed-at-cop28\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">separate report<\/a>\u00a0from the IEA, published last month, shows how countries could close most of this gap \u201cby fully implementing the 2030 goals they agreed at COP28\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>These goals included doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements and tripling global renewable capacity by 2030. Together, these two elements \u201ccould provide larger emissions reductions by 2030 than anything else\u201d, the outlook says.<\/p>\n<p>It reinforces the key changes that would be needed to get on track for current climate pledges\u00a0\u2013\u00a0which would limit warming in 2100 to around 1.7C\u00a0\u2013 or to limit warming to 1.5C.<\/p>\n<p>In broad terms, this would mean even faster electrification and deployment of clean-energy technologies, as well as taking rapid action to cut methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.<\/p>\n<p>(Instead of electricity\u2019s share of final energy use increasing from 20% to 32% by 2050, as under current policy settings, electrification rates would double to 42% by 2050, if climate pledges are met, and would nearly triple to 55%, if the world gets on track for 1.5C.)<\/p>\n<p>More specifically, the IEA points to \u201cseven key clean-energy technologies\u201d: solar; wind; nuclear; EVs; heat pumps; low-emissions\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/in-depth-qa-does-the-world-need-hydrogen-to-solve-climate-change\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hydrogen<\/a>; and carbon capture and storage.<\/p>\n<p>The report says the world has \u201cthe need and the capacity to go much faster\u201d in these areas, which \u2013\u00a0unlike the current trajectory\u00a0\u2013 would bring global emissions into a \u201cmeaningful decline\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>Spotlighting the need for a positive outcome in upcoming climate-finance discussions at the COP29 UN summit in November in Baku, Azerbaijan, the IEA says that high financing costs and project risks are limiting the spread of these clean-energy technologies in developing countries.<\/p>\n<p>Concluding his report foreword, the IEA\u2019s Birol emphasises the choices facing governments, investors and consumers. He writes:<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>\u201cThis WEO highlights, once again, the choices that can move the energy system in a safer and more sustainable direction. I urge decision makers around the world to use this analysis to understand how the energy landscape is changing, and how to accelerate this clean energy transformation in ways that benefit people\u2019s lives and future prosperity.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>The outlook warns that decisionmakers \u201ctoo often entrench the flaws in today\u2019s energy system, rather than pushing it towards a cleaner and safer path\u201d. It adds: \u201c[L]ocking in fossil fuel use has consequences\u2026the costs of climate inaction\u2026grow higher by the day.\u201d<\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The outlook warns that decisionmakers \u201ctoo often entrench the flaws in today\u2019s energy system, rather than pushing it towards a cleaner and safer path\u201d. It adds: \u201c[L]ocking in fossil fuel use has consequences\u2026the costs of climate inaction\u2026grow higher by the day.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":128238,"featured_media":3504360,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[79716,213529,79718],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3504353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-energy","category-energy-featured","category-environment"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3504353","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/128238"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=3504353"}],"version-history":[{"count":6,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3504353\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3504359,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3504353\/revisions\/3504359"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/3504360"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=3504353"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=3504353"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=3504353"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}