{"id":3501409,"date":"2024-05-28T10:03:00","date_gmt":"2024-05-28T10:03:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/?p=3501409"},"modified":"2024-05-29T15:13:36","modified_gmt":"2024-05-29T15:13:36","slug":"navigating-climate-catastrophe-part-1-the-predicament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.resilience.org\/stories\/2024-05-28\/navigating-climate-catastrophe-part-1-the-predicament\/","title":{"rendered":"Navigating Climate Catastrophe: Part 1 \u2013 The Predicament"},"content":{"rendered":"

This is Part 1 of an exploration of the current state of the climate crisis. <\/em><\/p>

People have widely varying beliefs about climate change. A surprising number still think that it\u2019s a hoax, or that it\u2019s a trivial problem. At the other end of the opinion spectrum, some say it signals the end of the world and there\u2019s nothing we can do to stop it. Between those extremes are lots of folks who believe climate change is a serious dilemma, but we can deal with it by installing solar panels, nuclear power, solar radiation management technologies, and\/or machines to remove carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>) from the atmosphere, after which we will continue to live mostly the way we do today.<\/span><\/p>

This confusion about climate change arises partly because of the political polarization and subjectivity that has overtaken many media outlets. It partly reflects the fact that climate science is unsettled, due to the complexity of Earth\u2019s climate system. It also derives from the fact that people don\u2019t like to think that the way they are currently living cannot be sustained.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

In this article we will dive far beneath superficial beliefs about the climate crisis. We\u2019ll explore what scientific studies tell us about why Earth\u2019s climate is changing, as well as the consequences we can expect throughout the remainder of this century. We\u2019ll also look at what can realistically be done to minimize those impacts and to adapt to warming that\u2019s already in the pipeline.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

We will examine the difference between incremental climate warming and runaway climate change driven by self-reinforcing feedbacks. And we\u2019ll note the indicators of whether we are nearing tipping points for runaway climate heating.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Crucially, we will view climate change from a perspective that includes the mosaic of developing global threats that will likely shape and limit our collective response to global warming. As we\u2019ll see, failure to take this big-picture view of the situation can lead to unrealistic assumptions about industrial society\u2019s ability to \u201csolve\u201d climate change using technology.<\/span><\/p>

This is a complex, disturbing, and highly important topic, so buckle up.<\/span><\/p>

It\u2019s Complicated<\/b><\/p>

Scientists have needed decades to grasp the ways in which the components of Earth\u2019s climate interact, and there is still much that is poorly understood. Here is a brief overview of what researchers now mostly agree on.<\/span><\/p>

Over millions of years, the main factors influencing Earth\u2019s climate have been changing solar output, colliding tectonic plates, volcanoes, comet and asteroid collisions, and variations in our planetary orbit. However, none of these can explain the <\/span>1.5 degrees<\/span><\/a> Celsius spike in surface temperatures that we\u2019ve seen so far. And this warming appears to be accelerating. Something new is happening. And quickly.<\/span><\/p>

Since long-term climate factors don\u2019t appear to be responsible\u00a0for the warming, short-term \u201cforcings\u201d are the most likely culprits. These include changes to the gas composition of the atmosphere, to the planet\u2019s albedo (i.e., the proportion of sunlight it reflects), or to the amounts of particulate matter in the air preventing sunlight from reaching the surface.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>

Atmospheric gases whose molecules are comprised of more than two atoms tend to trap heat rather than letting it radiate into space; for this reason, they are known as <\/span>greenhouse gases<\/span><\/a>. The main ones are water vapor (H2<\/sub>O), carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>), and methane (CH4<\/sub>). Water vapor\u2019s impact is largely self-canceling: while it traps heat, clouds (which are water vapor) also reflect sunlight. More significantly, the burning of billions of tons of coal, oil, and gas during the last century or so has released enormous amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, whose CO2<\/sub><\/span> concentration has increased from 280 parts per million (ppm) in pre-industrial times to over 425 ppm today. The amount of methane in the atmosphere is also rising, again due to human activities. The consensus of climate scientists is that human-caused greenhouse gas emissions are the main reason for the observed average planetary surface warming.<\/span><\/p>

However, the other two short-term climate forcings also play a role. Earth\u2019s <\/span>albedo<\/span><\/a>, or reflectivity, is shifting. Glaciers and sea ice are melting, exposing darker water and rock, which absorb more heat from sunlight. People are cutting down forests and planting row crops, and land surface is being paved, all on an unprecedented scale; these activities increase how much heat the land absorbs from sunlight. The highly reflective planetary cloud cover is also changing, again in response to human activities. Some of these cloud changes, including ones induced by the heat and smoke of larger and more frequent wildfires, are indirectly due to human action (they\u2019re responses to global warming, which is human-caused). On a net basis, planetary reflectivity is declining, so the Earth is absorbing more heat from the sunlight that hits its surface.<\/span><\/p>

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Deep Dive: Navigating Climate Unraveling<\/a><\/h2>\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t\t\t\t